Lines on a map

The West is going blue. Colorado and New Mexico have been there for a couple years now, thanks to shifting demographics (liberal white people moving east to Colorado and Mexicans moving into New Mexico). Now Nevada is leaning toward Obama, and McCain is having to scramble to save his home state of Arizona. If the California folks get tired of Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, they might even start moving to Wyoming and Idaho, and the whole West except for Utah - which used to be a red-state bastion - would be a big sea of blue.

I like Western liberalism. It's a bit different from its East Coast counterpart. It puts less emphasis on redistribution and more on growth (pretty naturally, since the West is a growing place). Western liberalism is big on alternative energy, the environment, gay rights, immigration, and women's equality. It's relatively business-friendly and open to trade. Western liberals like government spending on infrastructure and research (because the West needs the former and thrives on the latter). Basically, the whole philosophy is about social tolerance and balanced, rapid economic growth.

The West is still small in demographic terms, but it's the first stop for Asian immigrants, so you can expect it to grow for the next half-century. Where does this leave Republicans, electorally? As I see it, their only chance is to expand into the Rust Belt - Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and maybe even Wisconsin and Minnesota. In fact, this is largely what McCain tried to do this election - and might have succeeded if the economy hadn't intervened. But when the pendulum swings back, the Rust Belt could break loose and swing with it, right into the arms of the Republicans.

The Rust Belt states are the wreckage of America's old manufacturing economy, linked with the Northeast but not quite the same. As traditional blue-collar industries decamped for Asia, people in the Upper Midwest felt betrayed by a government that had always supported them before. And when people feel betrayed by government, it offers the right wing a chance to move in and replace national loyalty with loyalty to religion and race.

That's really what McCain's campaign has been about - telling economically desperate white Midwesterners to turn on blacks and Muslims (somehow represented by the half-black, non-Muslim Obama). That's why his last stand has been Pennsylvania, and why even Democratic-leaning pollsters are quietly starting to think of Ohio as a permanent red state.

In fact, if racial wedge politics captures the Rust Belt faster than immigration grows the West, the Democrats could have a problem on our hands. The Upper Midwest could become the New South - a place where people trust their tribe more than their nation, and where Republicans command the loyalty of the bigger tribe. If we're going to keep the Upper Midwest blue, we've got to focus on revitalizing the economy of that region, so people trust their country again.