Party politics

At a party last night, I asked a guy (white, late 20s, public school history teacher) if he was a Democrat or a Republican. He said that although his "morals" were with the Republicans, the current state of the nation was making him vote Democratic.

"What morals are those?" I asked, expecting to hear something about family values or religion.

Instead, the guy started to get uncomfortable, hemmed-and-hawed a bit, and finally said that what he meant was that he thought only certain people should be able to vote. Because, he explained, not everyone knows what's good for our country. As an example of people who don't know, he cited some kids in his school who didn't know whether Obama was a Democrat or a Republican, but wanted to vote for him so there could be a black president.

So, I asked, how can we identify the wise, responsible elite whose vote should be counted? Fidgeting in extreme discomfort, he suggested a literacy test.

OK, so, that answered my question.

This guy said what millions think - to people in the South and the Midwest, the Republicans are not fundamentally about family values or low taxes. They are about keeping power out of the hands of black people.

When a white guy with a Southern drawl runs on the Democratic ticket, some of these hordes of Southern and Midwestern white folks are able to convince themselves that racial power politics is off the table for at least one election. But Obama, obviously, embodies everything that these people fear.

Check out this new poll:

Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.

More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can't win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.

(But) not all whites are prejudiced. Indeed, more whites say good things about blacks than say bad things, the poll shows. And many whites who see blacks in a negative light are still willing or even eager to vote for Obama...

Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.

Now keep in mind, there may not be a "Bradley effect" at work here. Obama is clinging to a razor-thin lead in the polls in spite of a bad economy, a massively unpopular president, and an uninspiring rival. As the article suggests, that may indicate racism at work. And if all the racism is overt, people may still be telling the truth about who they're going to vote for.

But this poll, just like my conversation at the party, is a clear sign that America's racial problem hasn't gone away, and is still very capable of influencing electoral outcomes.