The writing on the wall

For all those who believe that China will keep growing at its current breakneck pace for the next 40 years, take a look at this report, which concludes:

Demand for coal in China is growing so quickly that...China's domestic coal production growth cannot be sustained much beyond 2020; indeed, in the [worst] case, demand will outstrip domestic supply dramatically during the next ten years...

The supply problems discussed here appear already to be manifesting. During the winter of 2007-2008, power plants in many parts of the country ran short of coal due to soaring prices and transport bottlenecks, while snow and ice storms disrupted power transmission...

China's furious pace of economic growth, which is often touted as a sign of success, may turn out to be a fatal liability. Simply put, the nation appears to have no Plan B. No fossil fuel other than coal will be able to provide sufficient energy to sustain current economic growth rates in the years ahead, and non-fossil sources will require unprecedented and perhaps unachievable levels of investment just to make up for declines in coal production—never mind providing enough to fuel continued annual energy growth of seven to ten percent per year.

If and when China ceases to have enough new energy to support continued economic growth, there are likely to be unpleasant consequences for the nation's stability.

This is just another reason why I'm still skeptical of the notion that we'll all be speaking Chinese in a couple decades.

On the downside, there goes any hope of saving the planet from climate change.