China and the Rule of 70

A new report by Albert Keidel predicts that China's economy will be as large as America's in 2035, and twice as large in 2050. That means the Chinese economy will have to double in size relative to the American economy in the 15 years beginning in 2035, which by the Rule of 70 means that China's economy will have to grow about 4.7 percentage points faster than Americans from 2035-2050. If America's growth continues on its current 3% trend, that would mean China would have to grow at about 7.7% in the 2035-2050 period.

Not bloody likely, I'm guessing.

However, the big problem with this report, in my mind, is the 2035 date. China's economy is already half the size of ours (in purchasing power parity terms), and growing at about an 8% relative rate. At this rate, it should be about 9 years before China's economy is the same size as ours - in 2017, not 2035. And if the relative rate of growth continues, China's economy will be twice as big as ours in 2026, not 2050.

By 2035, the rate of growth will have slowed dramatically. They will, however, be much bigger than us by then.