Game theory, James Dobson style

Today, in a NYT editorial, James Dobson called for "values voters" to vote for a minor-party candidate if the GOP nominates a pro-choice candidate (e.g. Rudy Giuliani). Is this just an empty threat? In the past, I've argued that it is, but consider the following scenario:

1. Giuliani is cruising for a loss. Dobson and the Religious Right, wouldn't have made a difference, but they decide to sit out the election anyway.

2. A bunch of independents are no longer scared of being in the same party as the religious right, and thus vote for Giuliani when they otherwise wouldn't have.

3. Giuliani still loses, but now it's close (because of those independents). The religious right claims that, if they hadn't sat the election out, Giuliani would have won. This, of course, is wrong, because if they hadn't sat out, a lot of independents would have voted for the Democrats instead. But the numbers "add up", so the religious right "proves" that it's indispensable to the Republican party.

If people fall for this trick, an extremist interest group can make itself seem much more valuable than it really is. Is this what Dobson is threatening to try? If so, maybe his threat isn't so empty after all.