North Korea Article of the Century!!

It is rare that I read an article on foreign policy that instantly reverses all conventional wisdom. In fact, it's only happened once. That article, in today's Washington Post, is so beautiful, so clear and simple and utterly-counterintuitive-but-obviously-right, that it should be required reading for everyone with even a passing interest in foreign policy.

Here it is.

The idea of the article is that what North Korea really wants - and the only thing that will satisfy them - is an alliance with the United States:

Those who think that dealing with North Korea is impossible are wrong. Unfortunately, those who think that it is...are not much closer to the truth.The basic problem is that people of both views simply haven't figured out what it is that the North really wants...

[So-called "carrots"] are not the ends that North Korea seeks...

Above all, [North Korea] wants, and has pursued steadily since 1991, a long-term, strategic relationship with the United States. This has nothing to do with ideology or political philosophy. It is a cold, hard calculation...The North Koreans believe in their gut that they must buffer the heavy influence their neighbors already have, or could soon gain, over their small, weak country.

This is hard for Americans to understand, having read or heard nothing from North Korea except its propaganda...[I]n fact an American departure is the last thing the North wants. Because of their pride and fear of appearing weak, however, explicitly requesting that the United States stay is one of the most difficult things for the North Koreans to do...

[America must] convince Pyongyang of its commitment to coexist with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, accept its system and leadership, and make room for the DPRK in an American vision of the future of Northeast Asia. Quite simply, the North Koreans believe they could be useful to the United States in a longer, larger balance-of-power game against China and Japan. The Chinese know this and say so in private...

[T]hat is why the North so doggedly seeks bilateral talks with Washington. [emphasis mine]

Like I said, it's not often an "idea" comes along in foreign policy and turns the world on its head. And when it does, it's usually disastrous nonsense (e.g. "All Arabs need is for us to invade their countries and give them democracy"). But this idea is different.

This is an insight on a level with George Kennan's "containment" idea 50 years ago. He saw that what the Soviet Union really wanted (or was willing to accept) was a stable balance of power. Now, the authors of this article (Robert Carlin and John Lewis) have seen that what North Korea really wants is to be under our umbrella, not in our gunsights.

Could this be the case for other rogue states? Could Iran, frightened by its economic weakness and low birth rate, and by the angry Sunni Muslims that surround it, just be maneuvering for U.S. recognition and aid?

Maybe, maybe not. But it's worth looking into.

And obviously, recognition and support of countries like North Korea must come at a price. The prison camps have got to go. The guns pointed at Seoul have got to go. But North Korea will liberalize faster under the U.S. umbrella than outside it - that much should be crystal clear. Remember, South Korea was itself a brutal, murderous dictatorship, until gradual pressure from its patron - the U.S. - forced it to implement democracy.

Unfortunately, it's almost inevitable that neither Bush nor any of his main advisors will read and/or heed this article.


P.S. - Speaking of Bush, check out the new Newsweek poll, in which 59% of Independents and 21% of Republicans say they "wish the Bush presidency was simply over." Wow. Of course, if wishes were horses, we still wouldn't be as knee-deep in horseshit as we are with Bush...