Groundhog Day Post!

Rise and shine, and don't forget your booties, cause it's COLD out there!

Yes, friends, it's Groundhog Day, and Punxatawney Phil has seen his shadow. Six more weeks of winter. Well, that's fine with me, I had enough heat in Texas to last 2.73 lifetimes.

Now for the GroundNoah SocioPolitical Prediction: Lots more winter to go.

Now, about this Bush oil proposal. Bush says we're "addicted to Middle Eastern oil," when what we're really addicted to is oil; we only get 15% of our oil from the Middle East, as a matter of fact. As for Bush's goal of reducing Middle Eastern oil imports by 75% in 20 years, David Roberts at GristMill points out that we could accomplish that instantly if we just bought the oil from someone else (like, say, our good friends in Venezuela and Russia).

Of course, this would do precisely nothing. We'd still be using the same amount of oil (exposing ourselves to prices shocks and warming the globe), and those Middle Eastern bad guys would still be able to sell their oil at the same price - to China, India, Japan, or whoever.

As I see it, we have two basic choices on energy policy:

1. Conserve oil, by increasing our fuel economy standards and switching to alternate energy sources. This would lower the price of oil (but not much, since India and China are both increasing demand so fast), depriving the bad guys of a few bucks. It would also insulate us from price shocks, and possibly slow global warming. It would give a big bounce to the oil-hungry economies of India (good) and China (um...). And we might even make some money by selling the alternate-energy technolgies, at least for the 7 minutes until China copies and steals it.

2. Keep guzzling oil, betting that the Saudis will run out sooner than later. When they do run out - or even just fail to keep up with demand - the Wahabbis will feel the wind going out of their sails real fast, as will the Chinese. At that point, the price of oil will skyrocket to the point where consumers will force car and power companies to introduce alternative energy anyway, and America, with its technology leadership, will be able to accomplish this shift the fastest (then sell it to everyone else for the 7 minutes until China copies and steals it). Sure, the globe gets warmed, but wasn't all that oil eventually going to get burned anyway?

I'd go with the first policy (the "everybody wins quietly" policy), but it looks like Bush is going for the latter (the "America runs everyone else off the oil cliff" gamble). My bet is that he uses the ethanol idea as a source of pork, and simply shifts U.S. oil guzzling to a different gas station, leaving the rest of the world to buy from the Saudis. Wow, no more oil from the Middle East! Amazing!


BONUS READING GUIDE

1. This is the most horrible thing I have ever read. Not for the squeamish.

2. Bush's science-boosting policy is still looking good. Why aren't liberals all over this issue? Why aren't we pushing for even more than Bush, including more fundamental education reform and scholarships for college students in science and engineering? And how is it that liberals are silent while Bush talks up science one day and then pushes to cut student loans the next?

3. Another good article on India vs. China. The article's title really grabbed me: "India yes China no"...