The continuing story of the 800-pound gorilla

Apparently some among the Chinese leadership thought that once their country was the most powerful on Earth, all other countries would do what they said. With America's arms sales to Taiwan and meeting with the Dalai Lama, those Chinese leaders are learning that they were wrong.

Make no mistake, China is now the most powerful country in the world. Yes, the U.S. has more nukes, but so Russia has even more, so there goes that argument. Yes, the U.S. economy is still larger than the Chinese one, but A) that's not going to be true at the end of this decade, and B) China has a lot less debt and a lot fewer spending commitments than we do, so their assets are in a certain sense more liquid than ours. And yes, the U.S. has aircraft carriers, which does give us the ability to intercede in overseas conflicts faster and better than China, but that doesn't necessarily translate into bargaining power in diplomatic conflicts.

But despite being the most powerful country in the world, China does not dominate by a huge margin. America is still very big and powerful. Europe is still very big and powerful. Japan, Russia, and India (which incidentally are all China's regional rivals) are no pushovers either. China's dominance has not yet reached the level of the Ming Dynasty, when the Emperor of the Middle Kingdom could just bellow commands and watch his tributaries scurry to obey.

My guess is they never will again. Some have spoken of the world returning to a pre-modern status quo of Chinese dominance, but China never really dominated anything outside East Asia. In that region, China had 80% of the population, and everyone else just had to bow down (except the Mongols, who periodically tapped a keg of whup-ass on the settled peoples to the south). But now five centuries of European ascendance - the European Awakening, as it were - has permanently changed the game. China is still the biggest fish, but in a much bigger pond - one where it has only 20% of the population (and less every year). The world - even East Asia - will never again be so quick to jump to China's bellowed commands.

In other words, China is now just another nation, not the center of the world. That's a lesson America learned the relatively easy way, and one Germany and France each learned the hard way (in 1944 and 1815, respectively). Let's hope China's leaders get the picture without doing something stupid.

P.S. - I also think this is exactly right:

Tamkang University's Lin [Chong-pin] argues that Taiwan needs F-16s and submarines. But as a last resort, it should also develop a lower-tech deterrent to dissuade China from attempting an occupation of the island.

"Taiwan needs to develop its asymmetrical capabilities, because we cannot confront the PLA head-on," he says. He envisions home-grown, perhaps US-trained "cement jungle guerrilla warfare" units, consisting of trained reserves and snipers who can operate independently and harass PLA occupiers.

"When the PLA comes, let them in – don't engage in bloody, Stalingrad-type warfare," he says. "Give them one shot today, two tomorrow, and three afterward, so they cannot conclude a war."