Why Obama is getting less popular

Worrying news for the Obama administration, as the president's approval ratings dip on nearly every policy issue in existence.

Why is this happening? My guess is that there are three reasons: the recession, the deficit, and Obama's over-willingness to compromise.

Reason 1: The Recession
This recession is going to be a long one; recessions caused by financial collapses usually are. That lingering gloom will relentlessly drive down the approval ratings of anyone in power - Obama, Congressional Democrats, and Congressional Republicans alike. That doesn't mean that people blame our current crop of leaders for the economy's failure to recover; in fact, as the poll shows, the public would rather sacrifice stimulus spending in favor of deficit control (see Reason 2), even if stimulus spending would help the economy (and nobody else has any suggestions for policy measures to shorten the recession). People just get gloomy and discontent as they continue to experience tough times.

Reason 2: The Deficit
A lot of people probably expected the Bush/Obama transition to be somewhat like the ReaganBush/Clinton transition - a free-spending fiscally irresponsible Republican administration followed by a responsible Democratic administration that comes in, cleans up the mess, and rebuilds the country's industrial strength for the long term. But Obama is no Clinton. He's determined to overhaul several of America's institutions - health care, and energy - rather than just steer the ship on an even course. That takes money. So voters are now looking at the two parties and concluding that neither one is committed to fiscal responsibility. Many voters want the government to plan for the long term (in which debt drags a country down), and they see both Democrats and Republicans as focusing on the short-term (i.e. mortgaging the nation's future either for tax cuts or for social spending). Many voters buy the old stereotype that Democrats just want to spend more (on the poor) and Republicans just want to cut taxes more(for the rich). They don't understand that much of Obama's proposed spending has less to do with handouts or welfare spending than with a much-needed overhaul of the country's creaking institutions.

Reason 3: Obama's compromising ways
People loved FDR all through the Depression, reelecting him twice before WW2 started. Why? The New Deal did a lot of good - the FDIC, Social Security, electricity for the South - and it probably mitigated the Depression, but it didn't bring back the good times. But FDR seemed like he was trying. He relentlesly attacked the Depression with every weapon in his arsenal. Even though some of those weapons misfired, FDR made it clear that he was on the people's side, fighting for them. Obama has done some of that. But he has placed more priority than did FDR on healing the rift with the opposition party. Time and again, Obama has compromised with relentlessly obstructionist Republicans, watering down his initiatives instead of taking his case aggressively and boldly to the people. Which makes it seem like he's not trying as hard as he could. Now, of course, people recognize that the root cause of Obama's missteps has been Republican obstructionism, and they rightly continue to approve of the Republicans far less than they do Obama and the Democrats. But many people now have the sense that no leader is truly on their side, and that hurts Obama proportionally more.

What should Obama do about this? To a certain degree, nothing that he hasn't been doing. The American voter wants more than can be delivered - deficit reduction without tax increases, pro-employment policies without increased spending. There is no needle for Obama to thread on these issues; Republicans may sit back and feel smug as Obama's ratings fall, but they know that they are even more in the doghouse. And Obama's policies are mostly sound. His health care plan should eliminate the tax exemption for employer-provided insurance, and do a lot more to control costs. His energy plan shoul keep Congress' carbon tariff and apply the procees to alternative-energy R&D. His stimulus spending should be reoriented as much as possible toward infrastructure. But in general, he has the right ideas for the country.

What Obama needs is a change not of substance, but of style. He needs to present these policies not as a collection of individual do-good initiatives (which maks it look like he's trying to do too much at once), but as essential parts of an integrated whole - a complete overhaul of America's failing institutions. Health care reform, alternative energy, and infrastructure are all parts of an effort to make America's busineses more competitive in the long run - take away one or two of those things, and the whole effort becomes half-assed. The American people need to see this recession as an opportunity - an opportunity to fix the underlying institutional nuts and bolts of American industrial might that we've avoided fixing for thirty years. Americans will respond to that message; they certainly won't respond to the Republican counter-message of "do nothing". If Obama makes this case aggressively and then aggressively batters the obstructionist Republicans into accepting his agenda, his ratings will go back up in time for 2012.

75 years ago, FDR took the Great Depression and turned it to the country's advantage by overhauling our inadequate institutions. 20 years ago, the Japanese government responded to that country's depression by dithering, pointing fingers, and capitulating to vested interests. The contrast in the results is clear. Obama's already doing the right things, he just has to do them.