Rampant Specterlation

(I was going to put a picture of Arlen Specter here, but you can't deny this is much cuter.)

Arlen Specter speculation has been requested, so here goes.

Naturally, this is purely good for the Democratic Party. It furthers the self-reinforcing cycle whereby moderates desert the GOP, giving conservatives more relative power within the party, driving the 'Pubs to the right and causing more moderates to desert. It's good for publicity, since it puts one more stake in the popular misconception that America is a "center-right nation." And although in the short run, it means there will be one more conservative Democrat to ally with the likes of Evan Bayh, I expect Specter to drift to the left over time, consistent with other party-switchers.

I also agree with Ezra Klein that the switch somewhat validates the Dems' less ideologically rigid approach to partisan politics. Where RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) are subject to swift punishment and marginalization, DINOs like Joe Lieberman or Evan Bayh are tolerated. Dems are forced to push a less aggressive agenda, but they avoid the risk of total marginalization in the off cycles.

It is my great hope that, once Al Franken is certified to have won the election that he won, the Dems will use their 60-vote majority to decisively slap down the much-abused filibuster (and hopefully pass permanent rules restricting its use). It's better for both the country and the Obama administration to pass more bills, even if the likes of Specter, Lieberman, and Bayh use their swing-vote status to water down some of those bills. And with even the filibuster severely curtailed, there's little reason for careerists to stay in the GOP; hopefully we'll see more defections, including at lower levels.

This should be a big wake-up call for the GOP, but it won't be. Rush and co. are already cheering Specter's departure; after all, the wingnuts thrive on the feeling of being a beseiged minority. For the careerists who hold office, this may be a disaster, but there's no way they'll be able to convince their mouth-frothing base that the proper response is to move to the center. That change will take decades, and a lot of generational turnover.

As a side note, it's interesting to note that the era of the Republican Jews is coming to an end. In all of the national legislature, only Eric Cantor is left. This is probably a regional thing; most American Jews live in the Northeast and California, both of which continue to trend blue. But it also might reflect the fact that Jews in general, alwys a liberal constituency, have shifted even more toward the Democratic side of the aisle than in years past - possibly in revulsion at the Bush Administration's disgusting and cynical attempts to use anti-Muslim bellicosity to try to wheedle Jews to the Dark Side. Let's hope the trend continues.

Anyway, the Specter switch is good news. Let's hope for some more. I'm looking at you, Olympia Snowe!