Why it's not time for bipartisanship yet

Rahm Emanuel today conceded that Obama's push for bipartisanship on the stimulus bill ended up giving Republicans control of the debate. Yglesias argues that Democrats' habit of silencing their left wing ends up making the center look farther to the right than it really is. These are two ways of saying the same thing: it's not time for bipartisanship just yet.

Which is a dangerous thing to say. The divisions between conservatives and liberals have become so acrimonious in recent years that America has been partially paralyzed. We're not to the point of a new Civil War yet, but there have been dark rumblings, especially from the right. For Obama to fail to reach out to the other side at this critical moment in our history might seem like playing with fire.

But even if bipartisanship, and the healing of America's liberal-conservative divide, is of utmost importance, it's just not time yet. You cannot have compromise without both sides sitting at the bargaining table, and conservatives are not yet ready to come to the table. The obstructionist behavior of the House Republicans during the TARP debate - which just might have cost McCain the election - is proof of that fact. As is the fact that thirty-six Senators voted for the nutso DeMint alternative to the stimulus bill - a plan so crazy that not a single conservative economist has endorsed it.

Why are Republicans behaving this way after getting smacked around in the last two national elections? As I've said before, I think it's because conservatives still believe that they have a solid majority of America behind them. This is obvious in the name of the "Moral Majority," in Sarah Palin's references to the "real America," in the flood of post-election articles about how America is a "center-right nation," even in the flag decals conservatives stick on their trucks. It is obvious, if you listen to Bill O'Reilly and Glen Beck, that they believe that there's a solid core of normal, regular, average Americans out there who solidly back their ideas.

And with good reason. The presidential elections of 1980, 1984, and 1988 were massive landslides for the Republicans, as were the Congressional elections of 1994. The death of the old Roosevelt liberal consensus and the rise of Reaganism really did make us a center-right country in the 80s and 90s. O'Reilly and Beck are only wrong because they're out of date.

Four things happened between 1988 and now that make the "center-right nation" a thing of the past. The first was that conservative issues - crime, teen pregnancy, divorce, drug use, and the communist threat - became much less urgent. The second was that conservatives overreached in their anti-government zeal, "privatizing" too many essential government operations, cutting too many of the good kind of regulations, and letting the national debt explode rather than raise taxes. The third was that the values of the North and West changed faster than the values of the South - acceptance of gays, acceptance of non-white immigrants, and religious pluralism caught on in much of the country and largely left the South behind. And the fourth thing that happened was Hispanic immigration.

It will take the Republicans a long time to understand that these four things have happened. It has only been four years since the conservative triumphalism of 2005, and look how long it took liberals to realize that the Reagan Revolution was real. But this is a necessary adjustment for conservatives. Until they untangle the noise of the electoral cycle and realize that they are increasingly a minority, they will continue to squawk about infinite tax cuts and block everything Obama tries to do.

And if Obama allows them to do that, in the name of bipartisanship, he'll forfeit his chance to implement real, effective policy. Which would endanger the very liberal revolution he campaigned so hard to bring about. Effective policymaking, however, even over the squawking objections of Republicans, would solidify America's nascent center-left majority and end up helping bipartisanship in the long run, as Republicans realize they have no choice but to compromise.