Is American power on the wane?

Paul Kennedy literally wrote the book on the rise and fall of great powers. So when he writes that American power is on the wane, shouldn't we believe him?

It's undeniably true that America's standing and prestige in the world have fallen to historic lows in the past 8 years. It remains to be seen how much of that prestige will return simply because Obama is in the White House. Given Obama's policy of respecting our allies and our enemies - a 180 from Bush, who respected neither - I'm hopeful.

But as for American power waning, I think it's useful to ask: Compared to when?

The economic preponderance we enjoyed in the 1960s and again in the late 1990s is gone, but that was never historically sustainable. In times of peace and stability, poor countries tend to catch up with rich ones; the very system of global trade that we built, and the relative world peace that we enforced, was bound to accelerate this catch-up.

But even so, it's worth noting that America remains about a fifth of the world economy, and (until the current crisis) continued to put distance between itself and other rich countries like Europe and Japan. A large part of that is due to our higher rate of population growth (thanks to immigration), but it's total GDP, not per capita, that determines a nation's power.

As for military power, it's hard to see how that has waned - yet. The near-disaster in Iraq showed the limits of our military's ability to pacify guerillas and build a nation - but no more so than Vietnam 40 years ago, or the Philippines 100 years ago. We've always been a lot better at smashing other empires than at building our own. And relative to other "great powers," our military is more preeminent than it was in the 70s and 80s.

Which brings me to the second question I'd ask the declinists: Compared to whom?

With Europe stil far from being a united entity (and facing serious problems at the same time), Russia crumbling demographically and increasingly dependent on shrinking energy exports, and India decades away from "great power" status, only China has the economic dynamism, political unity, and size to challenge the U.S. as a great power. When Paul Kennedy talks about "[t]he global tectonic power shifts, towards Asia and away from the West," he means the shift from Ameican preeminence to Chinese preeminence.

The fact that our government is dependent on loans from theirs is a strong argument in favor of the "China takes over from America" argument. And China's spectacular economic growth, which has brought similar increase in military strength, has been astonishing. Even the fact that Kennedy uses "Asia" as a euphemism for China speaks to the awe and respect with which those who track geopolitical shifts now view the Middle Kingdom. And though China is going through its own economic difficulties - which may or may not cause political difficulties - it seems to me that the country has at least a decade of spectacular growth yet to come.

So it's hard to argue that American power has waned relative to the 1990s, and relative to China. And the financial crisis and global recession has thrown everything into doubt, so it's difficult to predict how we'll emerge relative to other countries. But in general, I'd say that rumors of America's wane are greatly exaggerated...for now.