The blue waxes

Matt Yglesias points out that the Southwest, which some commentators still inexplicably refer to as a Republican bastion, is now pretty reliably blue. 2006 and 2008 have seen Democratic victories in every Southwestern state except Utah. This is, of course, due to a combination of Mexican immigration and liberals moving inland from California to flee high housing prices.

Which means that the Republican bastions are now: A) the South, B) the Great Plains (though I feel like Nebraska could turn blue), and C) a few mining states in the inner northwest. The Great Plains are losing population fast, the mining states don't have any to begin with, and the South is getting eaten away as the Blue creeps down the East Coast.

Take a look at this map of projected population growth:














Now granted, some of that growth in the Southwest is not going to come through, due to the big drop in Mexican immigration. But don't expect the national pattern to change. The fastest-growing states are all looking bluer except for the Mormon region and Texas.

Which means Texas is the key to ending the 50-50 liberal-conservative split we've had for the past 40 years or so. If Texas goes blue, the Republican party's Southern Strategy will be well and permanently dead, and the party will be forced to become saner and more attuned to what the non-Southern America wants. Relying on the Solid South and then trying to frighten enough Midwesterners and Southwesterners by screeching about terrorism and taxes will no longer have any hope of getting the job done.