Race and the race, cont.

We usually think of "race" in politics as being a black-white thing, maybe with Hispanics thrown in there kinda-sorta. But this neglects the fact that Asian-Americans are a substantial and rapidly-growing minority, already representing more than 5% of the U.S. population (compared to about 13% for blacks). How do they vote?

Matt Yglesias shows some charts from the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Basically, in 2000, poor Asians voted for Gore, middle-class Asians were split, and rich Asians went for Bush. But by 2004, not a single Asian income group was voting Republican; in fact, Asians voted more Democratic than Hispanics.

A lot of people, both liberal and conservative, are used to thinking of racial politics in terms of wealth redistribution; the idea is that Democrats offer to take money away from whites and give it to blacks. But that doesn't make any sense in the context of Asian voting, because Asians make more money than whites! About 20% more, actually. It's a pretty safe bet Asians aren't looking for a handout.

Also, it's hard to attribute it to culture. Japan and Taiwan, from which many Asian-Americans are descended, are very conservative countries. As for Indian-Americans, the list of prominent Indian-American conservatives (Bobby Jindal, Ramesh Ponnuru, Dinesh D'Souza) is growing longer all the time. So why the Democratic tilt among the Asian-American voting public?

My guess is that Republicans have alienated Asians since the 90s by putting out an ever-larger racist vibe. Karl Rove's 2004 and 2006 strategy was to "focus on the base" at the expense of swing voters (and remember "Macaca"?). Since then, the Republicans have gotten increasingly anti-immigrant. The Department of Homeland Security has kept out ridiculous numbers of high-skilled Asian immigrants (mostly Indians). And of course, this election cycle has been by far the worst of all. Republicans haven't explicitly told Asians that they're not, and will never be, real Americans. But they have told that to Hispanics, and Asians can make the connection and take a hint. Lou Dobbs is just as afraid of high-skilled Indians taking our computer jobs as he is of low-skilled Mexicans taking our construction jobs. And if a half-Kenyan presidential candidate inspires screams of "Kill him!" at a Palin rally, how would an Indian-American or Korean-American candidate be received?

Earth to Republicans: the non-Hispanic white fertility rate in America is way below replacement level. Mexican immigration is drying up. Asian-Americans are the future. And if you keep it up with this "only white people are real Americans" bullshit, you're going to miss the most important boat you ever missed.