The "O" in GOP

David Frum, a conservative writer, has written maybe the best column I've seen on America's changing partisan demographics. On inequality:

The trend to inequality is not new, and it is not confined to the United States...

The first reason is...family life. Not so long ago, most households were home to two adults, one who worked and one who did not. Today fewer than half of America’s households are headed by married couples, and married women usually work. So America [has] become increasingly divided between families earning two incomes and those getting by on one at most...

Inequality within nations is [also] rising in large part because inequality is declining among nations...Less-skilled Americans now face hundreds of millions of new wage competitors, while highly skilled Americans can sell their services in a worldwide market.

On growing Democratic strength among the upper middle class:

In 2000, Al Gore beat George Bush, 56-39, among the 4 percent of voters who identified themselves as “upper class.” America’s wealthiest ZIP codes are a roll call of Democratic strongholds: Sagaponack, N.Y.; Aspen, Colo.; Marin County, Calif.; the near North Side of Chicago; Beacon Hill in Boston...By returning to the center on economic matters in the 1990s, the Democrats emancipated higher-income and socially moderate voters to vote with their values rather than with their pocketbooks.

Republicans still claim the support of the upper-middle, but by dwindling margins. Democrats increased their share of the vote among those earning more than $100,000 by 9 percentage points between 1994 and 1998. Between 1998 and 2006, Democrats increased [it] by 3 more points.

On economic policy:

Republican economic management since 2001 has not yielded many benefits for middle-income America. Adjusting for inflation, the incomes of college graduates actually dropped by 5 percent between 2000 and 2004...

Conservatives need to stop denying reality. The stagnation of the incomes of middle-class Americans is a fact. And only by acknowledging facts can we respond effectively to the genuine difficulties of voters in the middle. We keep offering them cuts in their federal personal income taxes — even though two-thirds of Americans pay more in payroll taxes than in income taxes, and even though a majority of Americans now describe their federal income tax burden as reasonable.

What the middle class needs most is not lower income taxes but a slowdown in the soaring inflation of health-care costs.

On government management:

Republicans have been badly hurt in upper America by the collapse of their onetime reputation for integrity and competence. Upper Americans live in a world in which things work. The packages arrive overnight. The car doors clink seamlessly shut. The prevailing Republican view — “of course government always fails, what do you expect it to do?” — is not what this slice of America expects to hear from the people asking to be entrusted with the government.

And the conclusion:

Inequality, in short, is a conservative issue too. We must develop a positive agenda that integrates the right kind of egalitarianism with our conservative principles of liberty. If we neglect this task and this opportunity, we won’t lose just the northern Virginia suburbs. We will lose America.

I don't agree with everything in this article, but it's a real eye-opener. It's a hint that the current popularity of Democrats over Republicans - obscured for now only by the color of Barack Obama's skin - is not just due to Bush's failures, but to the failure of the Republican vision for America.

In response to the Dems taking the responsible center, the GOP has moved farther to the right, and demanded the country follow. So far we've done as they demanded, but the foundation of the Republican base may be crumbling as a result. Conservatives would be well-advised to recognize that fact, instead of just screaming "rah rah liberals biased media rah rah rah" whenever the issue comes up.