Obama may have reclaimed a (slim) lead in the polls, but here's the national electoral map. I expect Obama to win Pennsylvania and Minnesota; they vote reliably Democratic and aren't going to switch this year. I also expect him to win in Colorado, oddly enough; he's led there in the polls all year, and it went solidly Democratic in 2006.
Assuming I'm right about those states, and assuming McCain wins all the "Republican" states on the map, Obama needs to win one of the following states:
Ohio
Florida
Indiana
Virginia
North Carolina
Nevada
As of right now, McCain is leading in the polls in all of those states.
Which means that no matter what the national polls say, McCain is still the front runner in this election. Yes, state-by-state polls are way behind. We'll see in the next week where the race is really headed.
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