Swing state report

Just to follow up on my last post, here are the trends in the swing state polls, courtesy of RealClearPolitics:

Ohio: Obama's modest lead has evaporated, and McCain is now even or slightly ahead.

Florida: A recent Obama surge has leveled off, and McCain now holds a slight lead.

Virginia: They're still neck-and-neck, with a small Obama lead replaced by a small McCain lead.

Colorado: Obama's once-sizable lead has vanished, and McCain is now slightly ahead.

Michigan & Pennsylvania: Still pretty solidly in the Obama camp.

Missouri: Still solidly for McCain.

In other words, mildly bad news for Obama in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado - the four most important battleground states. If Obama loses these four states, he almost certainly loses the election. In the meantime, people are saying they've been hearing too much about Obama and not enough about McCain, which is a bad sign. But we'll see what happens in a couple weeks, after the conventions shake everything up.