Geronimo!

Wow. I was all geared up to write a post called "The Real China Threat," in which I explained that the threat from China wasn't military or political, it was economic - that, by "rocking the boat," so to speak, China would destabilize the world economy, strain resources, and stop globalization from working like it should.

Then, amazingly, Robert Samuelson of the Washington Post came along the next day and wrote the exact same article. It even has the exact same title. Unbelievable.

Here's an excerpt:

The real threat from China...is that China will destabilize the world economy. It will distort trade, foster huge financial imbalances and trigger a contentious competition for scarce raw materials. Symptoms of instability have already surfaced, and if they grow worse, everyone -- including the Chinese -- may suffer. China is now "challenging some of the fundamental tenets of the existing [global] economic system," says economist C. Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute

At first, China pursued its ambitions within the existing global framework. Indeed, the United States supported China's membership in the World Trade Organization in 2001. But as it grows richer, China increasingly ignores old norms, Bergsten argues. It runs a predatory trade policy by keeping its currency, the renminbi, at artificially low levels. That stimulates export-led growth. From 2000 to 2007, China's current account surplus -- a broad measure of trade flows -- ballooned from 1.7 percent of gross domestic product to 11.1 percent. The biggest losers are not U.S. manufacturers but developing countries whose labor-intensive exports are most disadvantaged.

Next, China strives to lock up supplies of essential raw materials: oil, natural gas, copper. If other countries suffer, so what? Both the United States and China are self-interested. But the United States has seen a prosperous global economy as a means to expanding its power, while China sees the global economy -- guaranteed markets for its exports and raw materials -- as the means to promoting domestic stability.

The policies are increasingly on a collision course. China's undervalued currency and massive trade surpluses have produced $1.8 trillion in foreign exchange reserves (China in effect stockpiles the currencies it earns in trade). Along with its artificial export advantage, China has the cash to buy big stakes in American and other foreign firms. Predictably, that has stirred a political backlash in the United States and elsewhere. The rigid renminbi has contributed to the euro's rise against the dollar, threatening Europe with recession. China has undermined world trade negotiations, and its appetite for raw materials leads it to support renegade regimes (Iran, Sudan).

The world economy faces other threats: catastrophic oil interruptions; disruptive money flows. But the Chinese-American schism poses a dilemma for the next president. If we do nothing, China's economic nationalism may weaken the world economy -- but if we retaliate by becoming more nationalistic ourselves, we may do the same.

Basically...yeah. That was exactly what I was going to write, minus the quotes. If the global economic system is like a pool, China is like a giant 400-pound guy doing a cannonball right into the middle of that pool.