We have done a great job of scaring the hell out of people, telling them that they are living in frightening times. You know the list: terrorism, rogue states, Iran, North Korea, a revanchist Russian, an expansionist China. Throw into this mix suspicions of Indian outsourcing and Mexican immigration and it seems as if the world is ganging up on the United States. In fact, the data overwhelmingly shows that we're living in more peaceful times than at any point since the early 1950s, and perhaps in several centuries...Wars, civil wars, deaths are all down, down, down over the last twenty years. And economic growth is up across the globe...In a sense, he's right. The world is a lot more peaceful than in most people's living memory. But does this mean the world will continue to be peaceful in the near future? Not if history is any guide. The two other extraordinarily peaceful periods in recent world history were the 1900s and the 1920s. In other words, right before the world wars.
Underneath the placid surface of world affairs, very real dangers lurk. Oil is peaking. Food just doubled in price, and water is getting scarce. More and more nations are getting nuclear weapons. Perhaps in response to some of these developments, military spending is soaring in China, India, and other Asian countries. It's not just Americans who have a sense of foreboding.
We live in a world of punctuated equilibrium. Long stretches of boredom can be punctuated by moments of sheer terror. I hope none of those are just over the horizon, but I really don't know...and neither does Fareed Zakaria.
0 comments:
Post a Comment