This article is so annoying I can't think of a sardonic blog post title

Roger Cohen in the NYT:

The world exists in what Paul Saffo, a forecaster at Stanford University, calls “punctuated equilibrium.” Every now and again, an ice cap the size of Rhode Island breaks off.

The breaking sound right now is that of the end of the era of the white man...

The West’s moment...is passing. Money and might are increasingly elsewhere...

Then I arrived in Hong Kong. The talk was all about how U.S. economic woes could impact Chinese growth. Might it tumble to 8 from over 11 percent? And what of India, powering along with growth of a mere 8 percent or so?

The West should have such troubles! Even revised downward, these growth rates are at levels Europe and the United States can only dream of.

Come to Asia and fear drains away. It’s replaced by confidence and a burning desire to succeed. Asian business leaders are rock stars. The culture of education and achievement is fierce. China is bent on beating the U.S.A.

What you feel in Asia, said Claude Smadja, a prominent global strategist, is “a burst of energy, of new dreams, and the end of the era of Western domination and the white man.”

Hong Kong purrs. Its efficiency and high-speed airport train make New York seem third-world...

Everything passes. In the 17th century, China and India accounted for more than half the world’s economic output. After a modest interlude, the pendulum is swinging back to them at a speed the West has not grasped.

OK, instead of making a coherent case against this idea, I'm going to his a few bullet points:

1. China and India accounted for more than half the world's economic output in the 1600s because they had more than half the people, and everyone was a farmer. In fact, that's exactly how we calculate their historical GDP: GDP = # of people * income of a poor farmer.

2. New York seems shabby because all of its buildings and vehicles were built a long time ago. It is cheaper to refurbish old stuff than to build new stuff. Tokyo looked bright and clean and modern back in 1982; you don't hear anyone raving about it now. Does Cohen actually think China will look just as nice in 25 years?

3. China and India are able to grow much faster than the West because China and India are poor. It's just not possible for rich countries to grow faster than technology progresses, not for any sustainable amount of time. Poor countries catch up, then they slow down. You don't see Japan or Korea growing at 9% a year anymore, do you? Actually there's only one big, rich country in the world that's never had a period of rapid growth...that would be the United States.

Of course, China will still be incredibly rich and powerful, because it is very, very, very big. But China has a ton of problems that nobody talks much about these days (and India, sadly, has even more). These include: massive and increasing water shortages, ridiculous levels of pollution, falling crop harvests, skyrocketing food prices for hundreds of millions of poor people, endemic corruption, failing rural health and education systems, massive overcapacity driven by irresponsible lending, unaccountable local politicians, the fastest-aging population on Earth, and no social security system of any kind.

Oh yeah, and peak oil.

But hey, maybe a little vaguely racist civilizational alarmism will be good for us. Keep the kiddies working hard. Scare the politicians so they stop squabbling and start fixing America's public policy. Unite us against the phantom menace of China! Yeah! Actually, on second thought, forget I wrote this blog post.