Problems ahead for Obama

A new Pew Poll is out, and here is what it shows:

* 43% of Americans, a plurality, say Obama is "not tough enough" on foreign policy. 47%, a plurality, say McCain is "about right."

* 56% of Americans say Obama has "not provided enough information" about himself and what he wants to do. 51% say McCain has.

* Half of Americans now say the U.S. military effort in Iraq is going "very well" or "fairly well."


That's the bad news. Obama beats McCain in a head-to-head matchup (then again, so does Clinton), and Obama does by far the best in the key "likeable" category. And the poll doesn't cover economic issues, which are becoming more important by the day even as Iraq recedes from the public consciousness.

But every day that Iraq looks more like an occupation and less like a war, McCain's ludicrous hawkishness looks like less of a problem for the Republicans, and Obama's sensible dovishness runs a greater and greater risk of colliding with the knee-jerk hawkishness of a country that still sees itself as an asskicker.

Which is why a McCain victory may be a bargain bet at your favorite online political futures market.