Conspiracy Theory List

The Economist has a neat graphic ranking popular conspiracy theories by number of Google searches. I thought I'd go through the big ones and see how plausible I think they are...

9/11 was a setup - Though I believe most of the Bush Administration would have no moral problem allowing or even causing the deaths of 3000 American civilians in order to win permanent power for their party, I doubt they'd be reckless enough to try this. If word got out, their heads would be on a pike and the Republican party would be history. Plus, given the Republicans' current popularity situation, it didn't exactly work out, did it? Probability* of truth: 2%.

Aliens landed at Area 51 - I tend to agree with Calvin that "the surest sign that there is intelligent life out there in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." Probability of truth: 0.001%.

Elvis faked his own death - Well, he'd probably have to be actually dead by now, wouldn't he? Probability of truth: Who cares.

The Apollo moon landings were faked - Again, it's all about being able to keep people from squealing. This would have been an enormous operation, with enormous amounts of people involved - lighting technicians, cameramen, best boy grips, etc. You'd think that in 40 years someone would have said "Oh hey, yeah, we totally faked the moon landing," especially after the USSR collapsed. Or the Soviets could have just said "Hey, check out this telescope picture of where that American flag is supposed to be. Guess what? No flag!" Probability of truth: 0.1%.

Shakespeare didn't exist - Well, whoever wrote all those plays could have easily changed his or her name to William Shakespeare, and then this theory would be wrong. Probability of truth: Who cares.

The DaVinci Code: Um...I'll believe in this conspiracy if it explains how Tom Hanks could win two Oscars. Probability of truth: Who cares.

Reptilian humanoids secretly run the world - No joke, thiss is lissted as #7. Of coursse, it'ss utterly ridiculouss. Now go back to watching your TV, yesss...Probability of truth: Heh.

AIDS was a man-made disease - If you want to wipe out your enemy, try not to use a disease that has an incubation period of 8 years. Probability of truth: 1%.

JFK assassination was a group effort - Well, yeah. Duh. Probability of truth: 80%.

Princess Diana was murdered - My ex-girlfriend was big into this one. And when she went through all the details of the theory, she made a really cute wide-eyed face. Thus, it must be true. Probability of truth: 100%.


So there you have it. I'm very surprised that more people think reptilians run the world than Jews or Freemasons. But then again...let's see...Vladimir Putin...Toby Maguire...every Fox News anchor...Hu Jintao...Paris Hilton...Harvey Weinstein...I guess there are a lot of reptilians in high places. But never fear - the reptilians are cold-blooded, so they can be defeated by throwing sno-cones on them, making them sluggish and slow-moving. Next time you see Toby Maguire or a Fox News anchor, hit em with a sno-cone! We mammalians will win back our planet yet.


*Note: I'm using the Bayesian definition of "probability," i.e. "a number I make up off the top of my head."