State of the World, September 2006

It'll take me a while to get back into the swing of things, in terms of reading the news and delivering armchair analysis. First, I have to go buy a new armchair. But in the meantime, here are my soundbites...er, deeply well-thought-out analyses of some items in the recent news...

1. Facists calling other fascists fascists.

Once again viewing national security as their "ace in the hole" in the face of surging Democratic strength leading up to the midterm elections, George Bush and his increasingly megalomaniac defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld have cast the War on Terror - and the War in Iraq - as a struggle against fascism. Of course, some may have noticed that, the more they describe our enemies as fascists, the more Bush and Co. apparently seem to want to make our country fascist as well. Perhaps, as I've argued, they secretly see fascism itself as the "strong horse," and want to emulate our enemies.

As every independently thinking human being realizes, the war in Iraq has nothing to do with fascism. Our own semi-puppet government is headed by a strongman tied to radical Shiite militias and to Iran. We're basically trying (and failing) to babysit two groups of people who want to kill each other. And Rumsfeld's attempt to cast critics of that war - or of Bush Administration policy in general - as traitors is the first step toward a very real fascism of our own.

But I want to sound a qualifying note here. In terms of the larger struggle against radical jihadist Islam, I'm sad to say that there is some truth to what Rumsfeld says. Of course, jihadist Islam - an ideology that reaches from Indonesia all the way to Britain - is not fascist in the traditional sense, with nationalism and racism and corporatism and all that. Yes, "Islamic fascism" is technically a misnomer, and needlessly offends moderate Muslims.

But sharia itself, as strictly practiced, would curb human freedom just as much as real fascists ever did if it were to be implemented on a society-wide basis. Just look at Taliban Afhganistan. And read this eye-opening article, which offers a frightening glimpse into the lives of European women still bound by the traditional power structures of puritan Islam. Much of the world is under threat from this strain of medievalist Islam, and fighting against it is unquestionably the right thing to do.

Of course, allowing America itself to become a fascist country is absolutely the worst way to wage that war - and absolutely the worst thing to do, period. If we let ourselves become a police state, with the president as a dictator and all dissenters branded as traitors, then there will be no victory for us of any kind. I'll let Keith Olberman speak for me.


2. Dems doing decent.

The best hope for pulling this country away from the increasingly suicidal course that we're on is a takeover of the government by the Democratic party. It's looking possible that Dems might take the House and make gains in the Senate and the governors' mansions. More and more Americans are identifying themselves as Democrats, and as progressives, possibly signalling that the wind has finally gone out of the convservative movement's sails. Former GOP stars like Katherine Harris and Rick Santorum are now regarded as ridiculous even by their own party. And even Karl Rove is losing his (in my opinion overrated) mojo.

But it's unlikely that the Senate will change hands this time around, and the presidency of course doesn't come up for grabs for two more years. That means that Democrats, if they take the house, will have little real power over the federal government in the run-up to the '08 elections. This could be good or bad. Would control of the House force Democrats to share the blame with the Republicans for the nation's woes (which are sure to continue as long as Bush stays at the helm)? Or would it give the Democrats a national mouthpiece with which to accurately and devastatingly skewer the Bush Era and bring about a more sweeping change in 08?

I believe it will be the latter. The number one source of American disconent is Iraq, which is all Bush's bag. And the other offensive things Bush has done - NSA wiretaps, indifference to Katrina victims, cronyism, etc. - have yet to be fully aired out. I have a feeling that discontent with the Republicans is not just a tiny, minor, one-year spasm of voter irritation. This is the start of something big - it's the culmination of years of declining conservative relevance.


3. Wage Stagnation!

There is, of course, one other issue weighing on Americans' minds in addition to war and security - the economy. Despite solid economic growth and increases in productivity, real wages have been in a slow, steady decline for the past six years. Workers are getting more done but earning less. Of course, naysayers can point to gains in average household income and household wealth, but the more level-headed among us will quickly recognize that the former is due to people working more, and the latter to the housing boom (which is now definitely ending).

And, ominously, workers' losses have gone mostly into the pockets of corporate shareholders. That is going to make for a lot of angry voters this fall. But the key question is, what will they turn their anger against?

Economists still can't agree on the cause of the rising gap between profits and wages. The rise of information technology - which boosts the value of high-skilled workers while making low-skilled ones less needed - may have had an effect. The minimum wage hasn't been raised in quite a while, and unions have weakened dramatically. But one factor is probably the availability of cheap labor from emerging economies like China, India, and Southeast Asia.

Basic economics says that the more available something is, the cheaper it gets. When government-sponsored socialism collapsed (in the 80s and 90s), the world was left with a whole lot of workers with no one to work for. Most of these workers were literate, well-behaved, and used to doing hard work. Many of them, especially in India, were fluent in English and were just as well-educated as any American college graduate. Meanwhile, information technology allowed companies to build factories and open offices anywhere in the world. This basically meant that our labor market got flooded with cheap labor, and so labor itself got cheaper.

Of course, the very same trend allowed corporations to make a lot of money, since they suddenly had access to all the cheap labor they could get their hands on. Hence, profits (and overall economic growth) rose even as wages declined. I'm sure the reality has been a lot more complicated than that, but globalization had to have had an effect.

But this leaves rich-country workers (read: you and me) in a difficult position. Do we push for protectionism and re-unionization? That would probably leave a lot of us unemployed. During this era of globalization, we haven't seen wage increases (on average), but most of us still have jobs, as reflected in the nation's still-low unemployment rate. If protecting our markets and putting ourselves in unions would (as many economists theorize) give some of us more money but leave the rest of us out in the cold, would it be worth it?

Nobody likes stagnating wages. But I don't think protectionism is the right way to fight the trend (I'm not as sure about unionization; I tend to support it on principle, but GM provides a sobering example of how unions can drag companies down in the long run). Instead, I would advocate sitting tight for now, and fixing the really glaring problems in the American labor market. Fix the ridiculous, outdated employer-based health insurance system, and replace it with a national health system (with private care available on top of that). Improve our primary and secondary education systems, and make college affordable for everyone. Possibly institute an unemployment insurance policy similar to those maintained by Scandinavian countries.

And if that doesn't work, come and ask me again. :-)


Anyway, it's good to be back behind the browser window, spouting off. To everyone, have a happy Labor Day Weekend. Ask for a raise. And stear clear of fascists of all stripes. And, of course, click back to Noahpinion every once in a while.