1. Interesting, and worrying, article about the real threat facing the Western world - not Islamic terrorism, but a resurgence of old-fashioned autocracy. Basically, non-ideological ("two-bit") dictators across the world are banding together for mutual support in the face of a West that wants to make them change their ways. Only now, with the rise of China and the oil might of Russia, these dictators - Sudan, Burma, Iran, North Korea, Zimbabwe, Syria, Uzbekistan - have two very wealthy, powerful protectors. 1991, we hardly knew ye.
So the question arises: what do we do when the bad guys are playing defense? How do we crack thse tough nuts without going in with all guns blazing, like we did in the Iraq Mistake? We'll just have to be patient, work around the edges, and play the bad guys off each other. Support NGOs in China, buddy up with Russia if necessary, and look for opportunities to topple each dictator one by one. It's less fun than the "guns blazing" approach, but patience is a Jedi virtue.
2. Speaking of China, add to the list of China's problems a hefty dollop of bad debt. This doesn't surprise me; I've seen the same thing in Japan. These are countries where people are used to emphasizing "in-group processes" over results-based relationships - in other words, they'll loan you money because you're their buddy, not because you have a solid business plan and good credit history. In Japan, it's kind of a racial/nationalist thing("Hey, you're Japanese? Wow, I'm Japanese too! Have a billion dollars!"), and in China it's probably a Communist Party thing. Either way, look for some serious financial trouble down the road.
Bonus China story: I still don't know if I quite believe this stuff about Chinese death camps where Falun Gong members are slaughtered for their organs. But it's giving me nightmares...
3. Islamic terrorists discovered with hardcore porn. Sound like a headline from The Onion? Nope, it's real. This gives more support to my argument that terrorism in the West (and somewhat in the Middle East) is all about sex; even as they rant and rave about the debauchery and immorality of Western culture, Islamists are secretly longing to break out of their traditional-culture shell and get down like the rest of those freaky Westerners. Just another reason why Muslim Match.com will eventually defeat Bin Ladenism...
4. Robert Kagan and Amartya Sen are having an interesting email discussion about whether there really is a "clash of civilizations" between the West and Islam. Kagan asks:
Why, for instance, do we not see more Muslims publicly insisting that their other identities [such as nationality, philosophy, or race] be given greater prominence?...[I]n the Muslim world more generally, who is standing up and demanding to be seen as more than simply a Muslim?
It's a good question. Does Islam trump all nationalities, ideologies, and races?
Amartya Sen gives a good counterexample - India. In India, despite the country's history of anti-Muslim violence, Muslims have refused to join Islamist movements.
I'd add a few other counterexamples. In Indonesia, Islamic parties got whupped by secular parties in the recent elections. In the U.S., most Muslims (seem to) identify themselves as Americans first. And, although this is a gruesome example, in the Darfur crisis we see Arab Muslims massacring equally Muslim blacks - race is obviously more important than religion there.
So no, there isn't a "clash of civilizations" between Islam and the West. But there probably is a clash of civilizations between the Arab world and the West (with Iran's leaders jumping in on the Arab side). "Islamism" is a kind of mutated pan-Arabism - Arabs trying to assert their power by painting themselves as the "leaders" of global Islam. This is probably happening because the Arab world has oil (which leads to dictatorships and repression), while the rest of the Muslim world mostly doesn't.
That's all for today! Tune in next time as we shift back to domestic politics...on Noahpinion.
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