War is over, hare rama...

Happy New Year to all 3 of you loyal readers of my blog! And what better way to ring in the new year than to point out the fact that the Earth is getting more peaceful by the year.

What, you don't believe me? Well, you can read this report by the University of British Columbia's Human Security center and this report by researchers from the University of Maryland and Ohio State. You'll discover that:

* The number of conflicts in the world has dropped by 40% since 1992.

* The number of conflict with more than 1000 deaths has dropped by 80% since 1992.

* The number of genocides and other mass killings dropped by 80% between '88 and '01.

* The number of "major societal wars" going on has dropped from 12 to 8 since 2002 (that's after the Iraq war!).

* The dollar value of international arms deals fell by 33% between '90 and '03.

* The number of refugees fell by 45% between '92 and '03.

So if these statistics are to be believed (and I believe them), peace on Earth is not just something folk singers sing about anymore - it's the reality in which we live.

Why? Of course, the end of the Cold War has something to do with it. In the nuclear age, big powers can't go to war against each other, so when they compete for dominance, they do so with proxy wars. The fact that no two big powers are in a protracted conflict with one another right now is probably a major reason why peace has broken out. Left to their own devices, most people just don't have the money and the motivation to fight modern industrial wars.

But I see more long-term factors at work as well. Declining fertility rates all over the world certainly have something to do with it - less angry young men and more old mouths to feed. Then there's the so-called "Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention," which says that the proliferation of global supply chains (this laptop I'm typing on was made in stages in dozens of countries) makes it so that countries have too much to lose economically by going to war.

Also, I see technolgical development playing a key role. In the old days, all people needed to go fight a war were a bunch of guys with swords. Now, even at the most basic level of warfare, you need thousands of guns, explosives, radios, etc...and governments who want to fight need tanks, planes, missiles, command and control, surveillance, etc. And since most of our economies are based on manufacturing and services now, as opposed to agriculture or other resources you can just grab (oil being the exception), going to war means spending a lot and gaining little, in dollar terms.

Finally, there's the spread of democracy and international law. U.N. peacekeeping missions and other preventative operations have proven to be successful in many cases. The number of democracies in the world has steadily grown, as well. These are reasons for optimists to believe that we're getting better, not just richer.

So there you have it. Peace on Earth. Terrorists may be throwing a few wrenches into the works, but it looks like they're fighting an uphill battle against the tides of the times.

Of course, if a nuke goes off in New York, all bets are off.

Happy New Year!