Politicks, politicks

Check out this piece from the Weekly Standard. Bill Kristol, editor of the "neocon bible," thinks Bush is abandoning the conservative movement by picking a softie for the Supreme Court. He predicts that lower conservative enthusiasm will result in weakened support for Bush.

In The New Republic's blog "&c." (which I recommend), Noam Scheiber predicts that Bush's conservative base support will weaken.

If these writers are right (I love that phrase) about Bush splitting from his base, does it mean a weakening of conservative power in America? I'm going to go with "no." My reasons being:

1. Conservatives are unlikely to split off, Nader-style, from the Republicans. Whereas leftists feel like eternal outsiders and in general have no problem losing elections, even the most radical conservatives feel like they deserve to defeat the liberals, and therefore hate to lose more than they hate to have their ideals watered down.
(My guess is that no matter how much Bush "tacks to the center," as long as he is more "conservative" than the Democrats, he'll have the solid backing of his base.)

2. If the Republicans lose elections because of an unenthusiastic base, it'll be 1992 all over again. Bush Sr.'s loss showed the size and strength of the right-wing base, pulling all later Republican nominees to the right. The conservative base is still solid and strong, so even in the unlikely event that Republicans lose elections, conservative power will be increased.

Of course, conservatives still have the little problem that any leader they manage to elect somehow tends to support expanding the government. But as a movement, their power will only grow in the short term, Bush centrism or no.